Publications

Using Major League Soccer as a unique dataset, this study examines the direct andindirect role of coaches’ experience in determining team performance. Inspired by labormarket studies, we applied traditional indicators of team salary structure and, unlikeprevious studies, empirically test the hypothesis that coach experience affects the way inwhich team salary distribution inuences performance. Our results suggest that coacheswith experience as professional soccer players improve team performance directly butworsen the negative effect of a skewed s alary distribution. Moreover, experience as aplayer is more important than coaching experience. (JEL D3, J3, M5)

We analyse the determinants of football fans’ happiness in the Russian Premier League using facial emotion recognition. We propose a new way of measuring subjective well-being and provide its empirical validation using sports data. Our sample consists of about 10,000 photos from football matches uploaded on the most popular social network in Russia during the seasons 2014/15–2017/18. The dataset of photos is analysed with the Emotion Recognition software, which takes a facial expression in an image as an input and returns the confidence across a set of emotions for each face in the image. Next we use multinomial logistic regression to identify the determinants of happiness. The results show that uncertainty and expectations are important drivers of football fans’ happiness. A win decreases the probability of being unhappy, and the effect becomes stronger for late rounds of a national championship. The change in happiness because of a home team win is stronger for males.

The Russian government has programs to assist Russian companies with financial and organizational support.  Award of procurement contracts may also serve as assistance to companies.  This paper uses data from a survey of Russian companies to draw inferences about the motivation behind the choice of recipients. Possible motivations are an intent to foster economic development, successful rent-seeking by recipients or simply corruption. The evidence is mixed.  There is support for both the economic development motive and rent-seeking in the analysis of financial and organizational support.  A role for corruption is most evident in the procurement contract results.

Growing importance of human resources places the role of managers at the core of company efficiency. However, there are studies that demonstrate the efficiency of teams without a manager, so-called self-managed teams, is higher comparing with managed teams. Thus, despite the focus on managerial efficiency in the economic literature, the issue of whether a team needs amanager is far from settled. In this paper, we use a quasiexperimental setting from e-Sports (competitive video gaming) to understand whether the hiring a manager is of benefit to team performance. The empirical part of the study is based on endogenous switching regression model. This method allows investigating what performance of self-managed team would be if it will have a manager and vice versa. The dataset includes the information of prize money and features of top e-Sports teams in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (e-Sports discipline) from 2013 to 2017. The main finding of this study is that managed teams perform better than self-managed ones but this is not due to the manager.

The most common tools to understand perception of food products are hall-tests, surveys, observations, etc. However to get reliable results these approaches require large samples, making them costly and time-consuming. Furthermore, they are also highly expert-dependent and rely on the assumption that study participants can express their preferences consciously and explicitly. Here we suggested an EEG-based approach to evaluate perceived product similarity in a cross-modal taste-visual task. Two candidate neurometrics measured from Fz electrode were tested: the amplitude of N430-620 from evoked response potentials (ERP) and the power of induced gamma oscillations during 400-600 ms period after visual stimulus presentation. Both suggested metrics showed a strong correlation with the perceived similarity scores at both individual and group levels, however N430-630 had greater inter-subject variability making it less suitable for practical applications. The results based on the power of induced gamma oscillations (N=18) not only reflected the results from traditional hall-tests (N=200) but also allowed better discrimination between different food products.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of perceived food quality and consumer ethnocentrism and potential trade-offs between these two concepts in Russian consumers’ food purchase decisions after the implementation of the Russian import ban.The results suggest that most respondents do not consider domestically produced cheese as a risky product in terms of food safety but simply of lower quality than imported cheese. However, the average respondent’s WTP discount for domestic cheese compared to imported cheese is 8 percent, which is relatively small. This corresponds to participants’ opinion that buying domestic cheese is the right thing to do since it supports Russian farmers and producers. The results indicate further that with increasing education and income levels, individuals are less likely to prefer domestically produced cheese for either economic or quality reasons. This effect is stronger for the quality preference.

 

 

This paper is an empirical study of the changing nature of the dependence of fundamental factors on the stock market index, which is the trend identified earlier in the Russian stock market. We empirically test the impact of daily values of fundamental factors on the MOEX Russia Index from 2003 to 2018. The analysis of the ARIMA-GARCH (1,1) model with a rolling window reveals that the change in the power and direction of the influence of the fundamental factors on the Russian stock market persists. The Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test and Bai-Perron test identify the number and likely location of structural breaks. We find multiple breaks probably associated with the dramatic falls of the stock market index. The results of the regression models over the different regimes, defined by the structural breaks, can vary markedly over time. This research is of value in macroeconomic forecasting and in the investment strategy development

This paper studies how the influence of the fundamental factors on the Russian stock market changes retrospectively. We empirically test the impact of daily values of fundamental factors (indexes of foreign stock markets, oil price, exchange rate and interest rates in Russia and the USA) on the MOEX Russia Index over long time interval from 2003 to 2018. The analysis of the ARIMA-GARCH (1,1) model with a rolling window reveals the changes in the power and direction of the influence of the fundamental factors which are probably caused by the structural instability revealed earlier in Russia and other stock markets. The Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test and Bai-Perron test identify the number and likely location of the structural breaks. We find multiple breaks probably associated with dramatic falls in the stock market index, for example with the significant falls of the then MICEX index in the spring of 2006 and the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the regression models over the different regimes, defined by the structural breaks, can vary markedly over time.

We investigate alcohol consumption as one of the main factors contributing to variation in the gender gap in life expectancy in the Russian regions. We consider the socioeconomic indicators and mortality coefficients that enable us to capture the causes of death related primarily to alcohol abuse and smoking. We assume that macroeconomic situation, coupled with alcohol consumption are substantial determinants of the gender gap in life expectancy in the Russian regions. A panel data analysis confirms that alcohol consumption has a significant influence on the gender gap in life expectancy and reduces the life expectancy of men first and foremost, as they are more inclined toward unhealthy behaviours. We have determined that employment and income support policies should be conducted in conjunction with the anti-alcohol policy. Social policy aimed at reducing alcohol consumption should be vigorously reinforced during an economic recovery.

This paper describes the results of research project on optimal pricing for LLC "Perm Local Rail Company". In this study we propose a regression tree based approach for estimation of demand function for local rail tickets considering high degree of demand heterogeneity by various trip directions and the goals of travel. Employing detailed data on ticket sales for 5 years we estimate the parameters of demand function and reveal the significant variation in price elasticity of demand. While in average the demand is elastic by price, near a quarter of trips is characterized by weakly elastic demand. Lower elasticity of demand is correlated with lower degree of competition with other transport and inflexible frequency of travel.

In this paper, we analyze a new approach for demand prediction in retail. One of the signicant gaps in demand prediction by machine learning methods is the unaccounted sales data censorship. Econometric approaches to modeling censored demand are used to obtain consistent and unbiased estimates of parameters. These approaches can also be transferred to different classes of machine learning models to reduce the prediction error of sales volume. In this study we build two ensemble models to predict demand with and without demand censorship, aggregating predictions for machine learning methods such as Linear regression, Ridge regression, LASSO and Random forest. Having estimated the predictive properties of both models, we test the best predictive power of the models with accounting for the censored nature of demand.

Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop on Experimental Economics and Machine Learning at the National Research Univeristy Higher School of Economics co-located with the Seventh International Conference on Applied Research in Economics (iCare7)

Puzzling Premiums on FX Markets: Carry Trade, Momentum, and Value Alone and Strategy Diversification.

Schizophrenia is a chronic debilitating disease. Sleep disturbances associated with a reduction in spindles are observed as warning signs prior to the first psychotic episode. Every spindle is a short-lasting (~0.5 s) set of bioelectric sinusoidal waves at the frequency of 10-16 Hz generated within the thalamus. Sleep spindles, easily identifiable in a scalp electroencephalogram, occur hundreds of times during sleep and are implicated in cognition like memory processes. For this reason, spindles are seen as an electrobiomarker of the quality of sleep and cognitive performance. In patients at high risk of psychotic transition, the density (number/time unit) of spindles is reduced. The underlying mechanisms of this change are unknown. Glutamate-mediated neurotransmission in the thalamus plays a key role in the generation of spindles and the etiology of schizophrenia. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that a reduced function of glutamate receptors at the thalamic level is involved in the psychosis-related reduction in spindles. Using cell-to-network neurophysiological methods in sleeping rats, we demonstrate that systemic administration of the NMDA glutamate receptor antagonist, ketamine, significantly decreases spindle density. This effect is consistently prevented by the widely used antipsychotic drug, clozapine. These original findings support the hypothesis of the involvement of a reduced function of NMDA glutamate receptors in the sleep spindle deficit observed in psychosis-related disorders. The present findings lay the foundation for the development of innovative therapies aimed at preventing psychotic, bipolar, and depressive disorders.

The purpose of this paper is to present a comparative analysis of the contribution made by intellectual capital (IC) to company performance at company and industry levels in the Russian context. It examines the performance effect of IC using a multilevel approach.

Trial-to-trial variability of the motor evoked potentials (MEP) to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a well-known phenomenon. However, the relationship between the fluctuations of the different types of the motor output and other motor system parameters such as corticospinal excitability, interhemispheric inhibition (IHI) and their interhemispheric asymmetry have not yet been fully investigated. We studied 20 young healthy right-handed volunteers. Four TMS sessions were performed (two single-pulse TMS and two paired-coil TMS with IHI paradigm sessions for each hemisphere), 70 stimuli were delivered during every session. Coefficient of quartile variation (CQV) was used to quantify trail-to-trail variability of MEPs amplitude. Resting motor threshold values were correlated between hemispheres (r = .842, p < .001). IHI phenomenon from the left hemisphere was obtained in 18 out of 20 volunteers, while IHI phenomena from the right hemisphere was shown in 16 out of 20. A strong correlation between the variability of MEP‘s amplitudes during IHI paradigm and the degree of IHI was found for the left hand (r = −.718, p < .001). We also observed a strong correlation between CQV of MEPs from both hands to single-pulse TMS (r = .632, p = .004). A side-specific correlation between the variability of the responses to single-pulse and paired-coil TMS was found for the dominant hemisphere (r = .524, p = .021). Our preliminary results demonstrate the importance of the trial-to-trial variability of the MEPs and its interhemispheric specificity as a defining characteristics of the motor system. This study was partially supported by ofi-m RFBR grant 17-29-02518, by HSE Basic Research Program and Russian Academic Excellence Project ‘5-100’.

Th e relevant expertise of both developed and developing countries demonstrates that the use of intellectual resources is critical for improving the performance of small businesses. However, previous research draws insuffi cient attention to the configuration which refl ects the interaction of intellectual resources transforming into corporate operations results. Th is study focuses on identifying direct and indirect eff ects of individual types of intellectual resources on small business performance. According to Andreeva and Garanina (2017), Molodchik and Jardon (2017), Shakina et al. (2017), intellectual capital shows a significant potential to gain competitive advantages and improve fi nancial results in Russian business environment. Given this consideration and the fact that small business plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of the economy, we put forward several hypotheses regarding the interaction between the intellectual capital components in the performance enhancement of Russian small businesses. Verifi cation of the theoretical assumptions is based on the analysis of 126 small enterprises in Perm Krai. The empirical part of the study involves the use of principal component analysis and stepwise regression. The econometric analysis data suggests that values and attitudes of managers and employees, as well as the quality of interaction with other companies, create a direct impact on the performance of small companies in question. The indirect effect in this regard is demonstrated by other components of intellectual capital, namely the quality of business processes, information system, corporate culture, knowledge and skills of employees, cooperation with suppliers. The ultimate structure of intellectual capital which allows small companies to improve their performance is consistent with the previous studies and continues the line of research on intellectual capital, small companies, and emerging markets.

Russian energy system is one of the largest among centralized ones in the world. For electricity consumption planning it is essential to consider heterogeneity of energy system areas in terms of both consumption structure and climate conditions. In this paper, the relationship of electricity consumption and air temperature is investigated on the data for 64 Russian regions. Hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis is employed to form homogeneous groups of regions: three temperature clusters are retrieved. Bearing in mind different electricity needs in regions, piecewise regression with endogenous reference temperature is estimated for each temperature cluster. In all clusters both cooling and heating effects are clearly observable but reference temperature differs. For the clusters of hot and middle climate regions cooling effect prevails, while heating effect dominates in the cold regions cluster. These effects consideration in energy consumption planning may result in a higher quality of forecasting. This is of a great importance for wholesale electricity market agents and functioning of Russian energy system as a whole.

Road traffi c today is a complex, hierarchically built system that includes a large number of elements, the independence of which from each other makes the process of organizing and managing the road traffi c diffi cult and requiring the introduction of new innovative automated systems. The article discusses one of these systems – an integrated optical mobile information system for light detection and automatic traffi c control on lay of line. The article presents the work of this system, carries out its approbation on lay of line, characterized by a high accident rate, and determines the effectiveness of this system

This article discusses the attitude of consumers to food without synthetic additives. The practical part of the study is devoted to the assessment of the willingness to pay for mayonnaise, which does not contain synthetic preservatives, by Perm consumers. The paper uses the contingent valuation method to determine the willingness to pay for the product.  The results of the analysis suggest that the average consumer of mayonnaise in Perm is ready to buy mayonnaise, which does not contain a synthetic preservative, with a 23,55 % premium to the price of mayonnaise with a synthetic preservative. Previously, there were no studies of the willingness to pay by Russian consumers for a product without synthetic preservatives and this work fills this gap. The results of the study will help companies and government to assess the attitude of consumers to synthetic preservatives.